Bobby Godsell, CEO, AngloGold Ashanti
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» Gold guru sees $500/oz average
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Gold's glorious ascent
Ashleigh Dubbelman
Posted: Tue, 29 Nov 2005

[miningmx.com] -- AS the gold price pushed through the psychological $500/oz barrier in overnight trade, Miningmx takes a look back at various market commentators, miners and analysts predictions for the yellow metal, during the course of the year.

From as early as February there were high expectations held out for the price of gold.

“I think we’ve seen as much damage to the rand gold price as we’re likely to see based on the exchange rate to the dollar, and I’m extremely bullish on the gold price,” said John Hathaway, Portfolio Manager, Tocqueville Gold Fund.

As it turned out the dollar rally had little effect on the rand gold price and Hathaway’s predictions rang true and were later echoed by AngloGold Ashanti’s CEO Bobby Godsell in October.

“Our views remain incredibly bullish. The gold price is likely to trade where it is, or to trade up. I mean, I know that’s a cautious prediction, but it’s a thoroughly positive one,” said Godsell.

In November the gold price continued to climb, reaching successive technical levels on its way towards the $500/oz mark.

“I think the gold price will get to $500/oz and possibly rise to $550/oz. But I don’t think we’ll get a return to $850/oz as we saw in the 1980’s,” said Colin Griffith, executive director of the Dubai Metals & Commodities Center (DMCC).

“As long as speculative interest stays strong in the market, a test of $500/oz is looking very likely,” said a Barclays Capital analyst. And some others felt the same.

“I can see gold going through $500/oz in the very near future,” Gregory Wilkins, CEO of Barrick Gold Corp, told Bloomberg on November 21st.

“Over the past 20 years, gold has had a very sluggish history. Now, however, gold investment is beginning to shake of its general bearish feeling and should push beyond $500/oz,” said TheBulliondesk’s James Moore.

“I think you have to be a very brave betting man not to say: ‘We’re going to say $500/oz in the next couple of weeks’,” agreed Paul Walker, CEO of GFMS, a London-based precious-metals research company.

It was however Jessica Cross, CEO of Virtual Metals who truly went the distance.

“I think we’re going to test $500/oz before Santa Clause arrives,” said Cross.

Yet not all were as optimistic.

“The time could come when the hedge funds become sellers rather than holders of gold. This could lead to the gold price having some serious set backs,” said Nick Goodwin, a gold analyst for South African stockbroker, T-Sec. Another analyst agreed.
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“In the next week or two we could see gold go down to $482/oz or $485/oz. It needs to get there before it tries $505/oz,” said Clint Fenton, a currency trader at Investec.

More lately, analysts reckon the gold price will take a breather before it pushes on again.

"I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a correction – perhaps down to $480/oz – but I don’t expect it to crash,” said Leon Esterhuizen, a gold analyst for Investec Securities.

But the crowning laurels should go to Pierre Lassonde, president and CEO of Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold producer and a gold bull of note. He forecast on a programme aired by the Australian Broadcast Corporation, that the gold price was heading for $1,000/oz over the next five to seven years.

"By early next year you are going to see $525 and down the road even a lot higher than that," he said.