Graham Briggs, CEO Harmony Gold
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» Harmony turnaround continues apace
» Harmony shifts focus in asset hunt
» Harmony receives less for its uranium assets
» Harmony's nice little earner lies in a billion tonnes

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Little interest in Harmony's plans

Posted: Tue, 02 Dec 2008

[miningmx.com] -- If Harmony hoped that presenting a paper on its projects in Papua-New Guinea - notably the developing Hidden Valley mine -at this month's PNG Mining & Petroleum Investment Conference would stimulate investor interest, it's been disappointed.

Most Jo'burg gold analysts haven't even bothered to read it yet. As one said, "In the current state of world markets, there isn't much interest in expansion; investors are more concerned whether existing operations are viable at these levels of demand and prices.

"At least in Harmony's case, the two deals it's done in the past year the sale of the Randfontein uranium assets to Pamodzi and the Morobe joint venture in PNG have stabilised the balance sheet and laid a sound basis for the post-Swanepoel era."

Another analyst suggests that Harmony's JV partner, Newcrest, paid more than full value for its stake, and has found that Hidden Valley needed more work than it expected. In fairness, though, the capital cost is still in the previous range of around US$600m, and production is still targeted to start in mid-2009.

One reason for lack of interest may be that, apart from presenting a broadly rosy picture of both Hidden Valley and the other prospects, of which Wafi-Golpu is the biggest, the presentation adds little if anything to information already available.

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Indeed, on the vital topic of costs, it's less informative than Harmony's latest annual report, saying only that cash costs will be in "the lowest quartile".

The annual report more bravely envisaged cash costs of US$255/oz, which looks ambitious given that Harmony's old-established open-pit mine in SA, Kalgold, operates at a similar grade, in arguably friendlier conditions, with a cash cost of $411/oz. Then there's amortisation - writing off US$600m over 10 years on a straightline basis at target annual output of 250 000 oz would add another $240/oz plus other unquantified non-cash costs.

Given Harmony's annual output of 1.55m oz, its 50% share of Hidden Valley won't be a major kicker just yet. Still, even if they're not thrilled by Hidden Valley and other PNG prospects, investors obviously approve of CEO Graham Briggs' performance since he took over from Bernard Swanepoel in August 2007.

It's the only one of the three major SA producers whose share price has risen over the past year: by 10.5%, to be precise, to 8 300c. In contrast, AngloGold is 38% down, at 22 500c, and Gold Fields 34% off, at 7 870c.