David Brown, CEO, Impala Platinum
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Impala, Anglo Pt in nickel bonanza

Posted: Wed, 28 Mar 2007

[miningmx.com] -- WERE the nickel price to stay at its current elevated levels for the rest of the year, Anglo Platinum would add an estimated R5bn to its revenues.

Although a long-term nickel price of the current order is unlikely, it’s nonetheless a fair indication of the massive price sensitivity that platinum miners have concerning their so-called “minor” metals.

“For each $10,000 per tonne increase, the bottom line would grow by about R750m,” said David Brown, CEO of Impala Platinum, the company that refines around 14,000 tonnes of nickel a year. “Nickel is now our third most important metal. Palladium is a distant fourth.”

The nickel bonanza comes after the spectacular appreciation in the metal, particularly this month. So far, nickel has tested all-time highs of $50 000/tonne from about $14,000/tonne a year ago.

Higher nickel prices are being driven by strong demand for stainless steel, which is given its non-rust features by the addition of nickel. Currently, Chinese demand for stainless steel means there’s extra pressure on nickel. In fact, according to Metal Bulletin, a UK metals industry magazine, world stainless steel production rose 16.7% last year to 28.4 million tonnes.

John Meyer, an analyst at Numis Securities in London, said the company is considering lifting its 12-month average nickel price from its current level of $22,046/tonne. However, there are dangers in this. “Nickel prices tend to be extremely volatile and, consequently, a sharp correction downwards is possible.” Nonetheless, prices may average at “very high levels” versus historic prices, Meyer said.

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What does that mean for platinum group metal producers? Certainly another boost to earnings. JP Morgan has a forecast average price of $17,000/tonne for nickel this year. However, were nickel to average only half its current value – $25,000/tonne – the $8,000/tonne variance between forecast price and actual price would add another R7 to R8/share to Anglo Platinum’s earnings from its 30,000 tonnes/year of nickel production.

The same type of leverage exists for Impala. “If the nickel price stays at this kind of level, it will have a very favourable effect on earnings,” said Brown in one of the biggest understatements of the year.