[miningmx.com] – SINCE his rise to prominence, Joseph Mathunjwa, president of the Association of Mineworkers & Construction Union (AMCU), has raised the hackles of gold and platinum company executives.
He has been strident and whilst the union has improved control over its members, his refusal to sign the Framework Agreement or accept the gold industry 8% settlement still marks AMCU out as a renegade organisation.
It would, therefore, be tempting for the industry to hope AMCU gets what’s coming to it should its latest call to strike action result in mass defections.
On the evidence of a BDLive article today, there are signs of internal divisions among senior AMCU officials, especially at Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), where there is unhappiness with Mathunjwa’s leadership.
Said Peter Attard Montalto, an analyst for Nomura International: “[T]he AMCU is in some trouble. While structures do seem to be in place, leadership over these appears to be weak and the chain of command not totally effective. AMCU members have been dissatisfied with the fact Amplats job losses have not really stopped, with much restructuring taking place below the surface, out of the headlines”.
So in some respects, AMCU’s call to strike action this week, in both the platinum and the gold sectors, is another watershed moment. Given the fact AMCU is still a very new union, any call to mass action is make-or-break. Nonetheless, this one, in particular, feels like a juncture for AMCU.
Analysts think AMCU will need a strong stomach for the platinum strike, and that the gold strike will be tied-up in legal challenges – if AMCU want it to be protected – which will make its advent difficult to follow for members who have been promised one thing, but may discover another.
According to Mark Rosenberg, an analyst for Eurasia Group, the proposed strike at the gold mines of Sibanye Gold, AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold – which constitutes AMCU’s 19% gold industry following – may not materialise until February at the earliest.
“[T]he legality of these strikes is not clear, and the relevant companies will very likely take AMCU to court immediately after receiving any strike notice. To stage a legal strike, AMCU must wait out these proceedings (which may well take weeks) …” he said in a note dated January 20.
On the platinum side, where AMCU has called a strike over about 75% of total South African platinum production (60% of global production), the situation is more complex and likely to be equally as tough if AMCU’s aim is to exceed the 9.5% settlement its rival, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) achieved with Northam Platinum last week.
Platinum producers have had time to prepare for the strike with some analysts putting inventories at between six to eight weeks. Whilst the pressure is on AMCU to deliver something to members, the industry has won itself a fair amount of waiting-out time. It is determined not to grant double-digit wage increases.
Yet is AMCU’s failure the most desirable outcome for the South African mining industry? Certainly, not. According to analysts, a risk is that AMCU may lose members to worker committees, a development that would fragment the negotiating process, absorb management time and open the door for other unions.
The outcome of this is a rise in inter-union tensions, and violence.
Rosenberg thinks a measure of this is possible anyway as the individuals at the mine level, those that brought AMCU to prominence 18 months ago, especially at Amplats, question national level leadership.
“It is unclear to what extent these shaft leaders support the wider strike action and for how long they will follow AMCU directives, especially once the strikes move beyond two weeks and workers (some of them heavily indebted) start feeling the pinch,’ said Rosenberg.
“The implicit threat of violence may keep these discontents in line, but if not, defections will very likely provoke intra-union clashes as AMCU tries to enforce the strikes,’ he said. The threat of violence was highest at Amplats and the least at Lonmin.
“Overall, we expect to see a more fractured union after this strike, though we think the AMCU may well remain a key force even if weakened somewhat by most likely not achieving all its demands,” said Attard Montalto in his note today.
