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Gilbertson/Anglo takeover possible but highly improbable - Hugo Nelson, Coronation
In an interview on ClassicFM @ 18:10 on Monday, 23 October 2006
[miningmx.com] -- SPECULATION that Brian Gilbertson was plotting the reverse takeover of Anglo American must be doubted, analysts have said.
UK newspaper, The Times, speculated on October 21 that Gilbertson was working on the reverse takeover of Anglo American once he had presided over the $30bn merger of Sual, of which he is president, Rusal and Glencore, a Swiss firm.
However, Graeme Korner of Standard Bank Financial Markets said it would be difficult to see what the enlarged Rusal combination could bring to Anglo American. There were also difficulties associated with the buyout of a $70bn to $80bn company by a much smaller firm.
"It feels a little stretched," said Korner of the speculation. He also felt that Anglo American was highly valued. The share recorded an all-time high of R348/share on the JSE today.
Hugo Nelson, a fund manager for Coronation Asset
Management, said that the takeover of Anglo by Rusal could not be a cash deal. As a share-based deal, therefore, the dilution would be significant for Rusal shareholders.
"It's possible it could happen but highly improbable," said Nelson.
However, both commentators thought that if anybody could manage such a transaction, it would be Gilbertson. It was Gilbertson who was responsible for the creation of BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company.
"If anybody could do it, it would be Gilbertson," said Korner. "Gilbertson doesn't think small and this is a deal that probably has to happen," Korner said of the takeover of Anglo American.
Nelson said that the restructuring of Anglo American, enforced by outgoing CEO, Tony Trahar, was recognition it was not properly geared to the commodity market. It also implied the company thought its assets, such as its base metals division, were not properly valued.
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