[miningmx.com] — THE Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) has revised its 2011 export target downwards yet again – this time to 63.4 million tonnes (mt) – which, if achieved, would match 2010 coal export volumes.
But whether even that reduced target will be met seems debatable, as export volumes through the terminal are running at annualised levels well below the 63.4 mt mark.
The new target was confirmed by RBCT CEO Raymond Chirwa at the Coaltrans South Africa conference in Sandton on Tuesday.
The terminal had originally set 2011 export volumes at 70 mt, based on assurances late last year from Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) that it could deliver those volumes of coal.
That target was revised to 68 mt in March following the impact of severe derailments on the Witbank to Richards Bay line.
During question time, Chirwa declined to be pinned down on reasons for the worse-than-expected export performance, or over the negotiations under way with Transnet to increase railage capacity on the line.
By the end of April the RBCT had shipped a cumulative total of 19.1 mt of coal, which amounted to an annualised estimate of 57.3 mt for 2011.
But the terminal lost further ground during May when it shipped just 3.57 mt, bringing the year-to-date total to 22.7 mt which indicated an annualised throughput of just 54.5 mt.
Throughput in April and May was affected by the need to build up stockpiles ahead of the closure of the Richards Bay line between May 23 and June 11 for scheduled maintenance.
According to TFR, the Richards Bay line is now back to normal operations but that’s denied by some attendees at the Coaltrans conference, who say the line is still working well below capacity due to problems on the return link, taking empty wagons away from the terminal.
Chirwa ducked a question asking just how realistic the latest estimate of 63.4 mt was.
He said: “We are looking to export up to 63.4 mt during 2011 and we can certainly do better than that if we receive the coal.’
Questioned on negotiations with TFR, Chirwa replied: “We have a business partnership with Transnet, which I do not want to speak about at a conference.
“The constraint is that we don’t have enough rail capacity but I am not at liberty to divulge details.”
The RBCT has the installed capacity to export 91 mt of coal annually, but Chirwa pointed out TFR was only planning to rail at a rate of 81 mt/year by 2016.
The terminal’s track record shows that it usually manages to catch up some lost ground in the second half of the year.
But to still hit 63.4 mt, the RBCT has to ship at an an average monthly rate of 5.8 mt for the remaining seven months of the year, as opposed to the average of 4.5 mt achieved for the first five months.
