GOLDMAN Sachs has challenged the bullish sentiment surrounding copper, predicting the metal’s surge past $11,000 a ton will not last as supplies remain adequate to meet global demand, said Bloomberg News.
The bank’s analysts said most of the recent price rise reflects expectations of future tightness rather than current fundamentals. “We do not expect the current breakout above $11,000 to be sustained,” they wrote.
Copper reached a record $11,540 a ton on the London Metal Exchange Wednesday, driven by concerns about supply shortages ahead of US tariffs. Trading house Mercuria Energy stoked those fears last week with warnings of “extreme” supply dislocations.
Goldman raised its first-half 2026 forecast and acknowledged US tariffs would support prices. However, the bank said demand will fall roughly 500,000 tons short of supply this year, with no shortage emerging until 2029. A modest surplus of 160,000 tons is expected in 2026, keeping prices “constricted” between $10,000 and $11,000 a ton.
Copper traded 0.1% higher at $11,498 a ton Thursday in Singapore, extending this year’s gain to 31%. Asian mining stocks followed the metal higher, with CMOC Group rising six percent and Capstone Copper climbing as much as 8.2%.
Goldman expects Chinese consumption to slump nearly eight percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, though it forecasts 2.8% growth next year. Activity in China, copper’s largest market, has declined sharply in recent months.
