VALTERRA Platinum is to report vastly improved earnings for the first half of 2026 owing to a two-thirds year-on-year increase in the rand basket price of platinum group metals.
A near 15-fold increase is likely – about 1,388% to between R18.5bn and R22.2bn or R70,47 and R84,56 in per share earnings terms – also driven by a recovery in volumes at Valterra’s Amandelbult mine in Limpopo province following flooding in 2025. The numbers also beat Visible Alpha consensus of R69.91/share.
The average realised basket price was R44,708/PGM oz for the quarter, equal to $2,710/oz – an 80% increase in dollar terms.
Production was down in the second quarter, significantly at Mototolo, also in Limpopo, which was shut for two weeks following the fatal incident at Borwa Shaft in March in which an employee was killed. Valterra expected a “step-up” in output in the second half at the mine while group-wide maintenance will have a bearing on volumes.
Total concentrate production increased 1% year-on-year to 775,400 oz despite much lower third-party purchases of concentrate.
Refined production was 963,500 oz, also 1% higher, while sales for the six months increased 4% to 945,600 oz, largely owing to a major stock release of some 188,000 oz. Stock build was likely in the second half, said RMB Morgan Stanley.
The group is keeping to three-million to 3.4-million oz in full-year concentrate and refined production. While potentially ahead on refined production, furnace maintenance had been pushed out to the third quarter, it said.
The ongoing improvement at Amandelbult also resulted in a second-quarter 78% increase in chrome production to 294,000 tons.
Cash operating costs, while within its guidance range of R19,000 to R20,000 per PGM oz, would be at the upper end. “We continue to closely monitor the potential inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict on input costs,” the group said. All-in sustaining costs were expected to come in as forecast at around $1,050 per 3E ounce for the year.
PGM prices have been on a tear since last year partly on the back of investment enthusiasm, underpinned by fundamental aspects such as flat supply and growing demand by automakers and other industrial consumers.
However, the basket price of metals is currently down on its $2,900/oz peak in January owing to the conflict in the Middle East, which has raised the prospect of interest rate hikes, dragging investment from metals to the dollar.
Despite this, the PGM market remains in a good place, analysts say. “While we’re cautious near term, we think this is a healthy reset for the sector,” said RMB Morgan Stanley in a recent report. “The sell-off in the equities significantly improves risk-reward, making valuations much easier to justify today than three months ago,” it added.
Valterra is due to report its interim numbers on July 29.
