THE Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is running in line with its 2026 coal export volume forecast as of the end of June having exported just over 30 million tons (Mt) compared with a forecast of 60Mt for the full year, according to RBCT CEO Alan Waller.
The terminal exported 56.5Mt during 2025.
Waller said exports for this year could optimistically reach around 62Mt. That’s assuming Transnet hits the annualised railage rate of 64Mt it was achieving in the four weeks prior to a 12-day maintenance shut down of the Richards Bay line currently underway.
Interviewed on the sidelines of the Coal and Energy Transition Day conference held in Johannesburg today, Waller added: “That was positive so we are very interested to see what happens after the shut-down. If they come in at that sort of rate then our 60Mt is a given and we could probably get close to 62Mt.”
Exports took a 700,000t knock in the first half of the year because of a derailment during June, but the good news was the swift recovery by Transnet from that incident. “There was a really efficient return from the derailment, probably one of the most efficient we have ever seen.
“Transnet immediately hit their straps again which is unusual and encouraging,” he said.
Rail operations had been stabilised by the deployment of all of the 102 new Alsthom locomotives which had been ordered, he said. Security on the line was also “under control”, and back to levels last seen in 2020. “We have security incidents but we don’t have cancellations because of them and the number of incidents has dropped right down.”
Middle East
Waller said the RBCT had not seen any major impacts on coal demand from developments in the Persian Gulf. “Our stock levels are pretty consistent. We are not seeing stock levels suddenly reducing or anything of that nature.
“Coal export prices are sitting around $103/t and we have not seen the huge spike in prices to around $400/t that occurred in 2022 with the Ukrainian crisis. I think the European countries have learnt their lesson from the events of 2022 and 2023.”
