MORE than a week after seismic activity triggered flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, uncertainty continues over when operations will resume, said Bloomberg News in a report on Friday.
The mine, operated by Toronto-based Ivanhoe Mines was set to become the third-largest copper supplier this year. Contrasting messages from its shareholders have left the industry questioning restart timelines, said the newswire.
Citigroup analysts warned the flooding could keep the Kakula underground operation closed until the fourth quarter. The affected mine accounts for 70% of the complex’s current production, according to Citi. The bank noted output could be restored without cost once water is pumped out.
Confusion stems from conflicting accounts by joint venture partners. When Ivanhoe reported suspending Kakula underground operations on May 20, Chinese co-owner Zijin Mining Group said there had been a roof collapse and full-year production would be impacted.
Ivanhoe disputed this, saying there was no evidence of collapsing stopes or structural pillars. Yet within days, Ivanhoe withdrew its 2025 output guidance of 520,000 to 580,000 tons. “There is high uncertainty on the timing of a restart and the level of remediation or mine redesign which may be needed,” Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
Water levels have risen despite pumping efforts, whilst electrical infrastructure sustained damage. Ivanhoe was pumping 1,000 litres per second from the western section, attempting to increase this to 3,000 litres. The company made no mention of the eastern section, where Zijin flagged structural damage.
Analysts estimate 84,000 to 275,000 tonnes of copper output could be lost this year. Such losses would eliminate much of the 289,000-tonne global surplus forecast by the International Copper Study Group.
Concentrator facilities can process surface stockpiles, preventing immediate supply interruptions. Zijin and Ivanhoe each hold 39.6% stakes, whilst Congo’s government owns 20%.
Ivanhoe declined comment beyond saying it will provide an update next week. Zijin did not respond to requests for comment, said Bloomberg News.
