PAN African Resources broke into the JSE’s top 40 index last month with a market capitalisation of R65bn. Once a gold mining minnow, the share has tripled in value in the past 12 months.
That was before period of incredible gains for the gold price, spurred on by continued geopolitical distress. Goldman Sachs increased its target price for bullion to $5,400 an ounce which it reached on January 28 before correcting by nearly (astonishingly) $1,000/oz. Gold is now back through $5,000/oz.
Investors still seeking exposure to gold miners rather than the physical metal, which tends to run ahead of equities, may conclude that opportunity in the likes of Pan African is long gone. They are probably right. Ditto for the JSE’s other main gold shares: AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields in the past 12 months.
But there are a number of gold juniors and exploration options on other bourses that haven’t caught up yet. Riskier, especially as some are not in production, they are nonetheless worth considering provided they pass the sniff test on management track record, resource quality and jurisdictional risk.
The rationale for looking at some riskier gold shares is the assumption that while the gold price won’t cruise around $5,000-plus an ounce forever, the cracks in the Western world order partly motivating debasement trade are sufficient to keep bullion elevated. This will incentivise new production and relatively cheap new sources of capital. It will also stoke the merger & acquisition interest of gold majors seeking to renew or grow their resources.
Gold Fields CEO Mike Fraser told Miningmx’s sister publication Financial Mail in December that his company, while not prioritising M&A, would prey on juniors for production, especially if their resources were sufficiently developed to provide near-term cash flow and growth. So what are the options in the gold junior space?
Listed in New York, Caledonia Mining Corp is a Zimbabwean gold miner which has profitably operated the 80,000oz/year Blanket gold mine for years. Led by CEO Mark Learmonth, a former banker, Caledonia pays quarterly dividends and has an established following among investors. The market is giving companies such as Caledonia fresh rein to build. Last month it raised $150m for its $484m, 200,000oz/year Bilboes project.
Not exactly the retiring type, Learmonth says Bilboes will help Zimbabwe reclaim its role as a focus for international gold investors. He may have a point because metal price gains across the periodic table have encouraged a fresh wave of investment in Zimbabwe’s mining sector, including by Kuvimba Mining House and Namib Minerals. These two companies will spend $300m reopening mines. It’s worth noting that gold production in Zimbabwe was up 40% last year.
Montage Gold CEO Martino De Ciccio, a former executive of La Mancha Resource Capital, a US mining fund founded by Egyptian telecoms mogul Naguib Sawiris, was ahead of the curve in 2024 when he sought funds for Koné, an $800m gold project in Ivory Coast. He sold forward $625m of gold, almost 20% of the project’s forecast output, to Canadian royalty company Wheaton Precious Metals at $440/oz. This was when gold was already trading at $2,200, so at current price levels it is a huge discount.
In addition to Koné, Montage recently acquired African Gold, which owns the Didievi and Wendé projects, both in Ivory Coast. As for Koné, its development is progressing without mishap so far, with production pencilled in for the second quarter of 2027.
West Wits Mining is adding a new chapter in 2026 to Joburg’s colourful history with the launch of production at its Qala shallows mine in western Joburg. Qala will become South Africa’s first new gold mine in 15 years. Production is modest at 70,000oz/year, but its technical risk is relatively small. Gold mines in South Africa descend to levels of 4km, so by the country’s standards Qala shallows, as its name suggests, is but a pothole at about 850m. At today’s gold prices, it is forecast to make healthy profits. There are also long-term plans to raise production to 200,000oz/year. West Wits is listed in Australia, but CEO Rudi Deysel says a listing on the JSE is coming soon.
The last six months of 2025 have been pivotal for Robex Resources, a Canadian junior which operates Mali’s Nampala mine. It launched a A$120m IPO on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in June ahead of an all-share merger with Predictive Discovery in December — a deal that paved the way for the combination of their Guinea assets, Robex’s Kiniero mine and Predictive’s Bankan project. Supplemented by Nampala, the new, larger Robex will produce about 350,000oz/year.
The company is led by Australian Matt Wilcox, a chemical engineer by training who is highly experienced in West African mining, having worked at Tietto Minerals as CEO and developed the Sanbrado mine for West African Resources, another successful Australian midtier producer of exactly the type Robex is hoping to become. The start-up represents Wilcox and his team’s sixth successful build in 15 years.
As a sidenote, the Australian junior mining model has long proved to be a winner in West Africa. ASX-listed Perseus Mining, up five times in value over the past five years, is perhaps the standout example.
