SIBANYE-Stillwater resumed the dividend as a strong rally in precious metal prices – especially gold – buoyed the group’s underlying earnings.
Presenting its full year results on Friday, the miner declared a final dividend of R1.31 per share (R3.7bn), representing the upper end of its 35% of normalised earnings payout policy. At the headline level, however, including R14bn in impairments, Sibanye-Stillwater booked a basic loss of R1,83/share (-R4.7bn).
The expectation for 2026 is that improved platinum group metal prices will drive earnings while the average price received for gold last year of $3,379/oz looks repeatable, despite the significant investment interest in the metal. At $5,041/oz currently, gold has gained 16% in price so far this year on top of its 60% in gains in 2025.
“I think we’ve got great tailwinds with the commodity prices. We see new bases [in prices] being set,” said Richard Stewart, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater in the presentation. “This market’s being driven by a world that’s scrambling to secure critical metals, so that’s likely to remain.”
He added, however, the market will be “volatile”.
Just how volatile is an important question for Sibanye-Stillwater, especially as the survival of its 58-year old Kloof mine, west of Johannesburg, depends on gold staying above $4,000/oz. Kloof produced gold last year at an all-in sustaining cost of $4,080/oz.
Kloof’s high AISC – compared to $2,509/oz for the division – was largely owing to the closure of sections containing unstable blocks of ground. The AISC means Kloof is not sustainable in the long-term which is ominous for its 8,944 employees (based on Sibanye-Stillwater’s website, citing a December 2023 count).
“Kloof is an operation that today is producing a lot less than it was designed to — it has a very high fixed cost base, and that means your unit cost goes up,” said Stewart. “According to our reserve price — which is through the cycle — we do not have long-life reserves at Kloof. We will keep Kloof going for as long as it is profitable and makes sense,” he said.
The mine has been allocated a one-year life which will be renewed as the gold price allows. It is a tenuous existence if gold starts to swing violently.
Closing Kloof, it it comes to that, will have financial impact for Sibanye-Stillwater. It has provided for a R5.4bn liability over its gold operations of which R4.7bn is funded. While the balance is covered by guarantees, it does mean a portion of the unfunded R700m liability will be for Sibanye-Stillwater’s account.
At least Sibanye-Stillwater doesn’t have to contend with pumping charges in the event of a closure because Kloof is a standalone mine. As a result, it can be allowed to flood.
Keliber
Price trajectories are just as important for Sibanye-Stillwater’s newest asset, Keliber, a €763m lithium project in Finland which was scoped to refine lithium ore into a battery grade product or lithium hydroxide.
Lithium hydroxide market prices flatlined at around $10,000 per ton for the first half of 2025 before improving to around $12,500/t – just above Keliber’s AISC of $12,000/t for refined material. Given the relatively low lithium price, Sibanye-Stillwater is restricting Keliber to spodumene concentrate, delaying a decision on the refinery.
“We’ve always said we would obviously like to see prices well in excess of that (AISC breakeven) in order to meet our internal hurdle rates,” said Stewart. “So we are looking at a range of $14,000 to $15,000/t is where we’d want to see it sustainably.”
The project was written down by $138m (€117m) at the end of 2025 and has a remaining book value of just under €460m.
“The average price that we’ve used over the life of the mine — and obviously the price builds up over the duration of the life of mine — was just under $17,500/t,” said Charl Keyter, CFO of Sibanye-Stillwater of the impairment test applied to Keliber. “That equates roughly to a long-term price of about $20,000/t.”
This is why Sibanye-Stillwater is hoping to win the ear of the European Union. If it can secure a floor price for lithium, as the US imposed on rare earths amid China’s ability to flood the market with cheap exports, Keliber has a better chance of proceeding to high value refining.
There are some promising developments in this regard.
The US has developed a critical minerals price floor system, according to a report by Bloomberg News on Feburary 18. Its aim is to have it adopted by allies as well allowing them to collectively ringfence Western companies from China’s pressure on their markets.
“We would like to start a conversation with the European Union and the Finnish Government about support such as a floor price, or guarantee for lithium,” Stewart told Miningmx in an interview this month. “What we don’t want is to be exposed to market risk such as the Chinese dumping material into the market and depressing the price in a year’s time with no risk shared by the EU, which will benefit from local production from our project,” he added.
