RUSSIA’S share of global uranium mining capacity could climb above a third by 2040, a level of dominance that risks compromising the energy security of western nations as demand from new nuclear plants surges, said the Financial Times citing a report by the Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA).
The CSA, a non-profit organisation, said in an inaugural study that an existing uranium supply shortfall, caused by thin investment and slow mine permitting, would be worsened by expanding Russian and Russian-linked capacity.
Gareth Heywood, the centre’s special project lead, said in the report that reliance on Russian uranium by 2040 could resemble Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas before 2022, noting Moscow had already shown readiness to use energy exports as leverage.
Uranium is mined mainly in Kazakhstan, Australia, Namibia and Canada, but analysts expect a widening shortfall this decade after weak prices forced mine closures and curtailed exploration.
Russia produced roughly five percent of the world’s mined uranium in 2024, but the CSA found that figure rises to almost a quarter once overseas assets controlled through Rosatom subsidiary Uranium One, in Kazakhstan, Tanzania and Namibia, are counted. Should all planned projects proceed, Moscow’s share could reach 36% by 2040 — though sanctions, African asset disputes and a Kazakh legal change could push it toward 14% instead, the report said.
