GLOBAL thermal coal shipments reached their highest levels since late 2024 during August, driven by robust import demand from China, Japan and South Korea, breaking a nine-month streak of year-on-year declines, said Reuters.
Analysing conditions for a possible improvement in thermal coal, Reuters said that the surge in coal purchases could unseat expectations 2025 might mark the first annual contraction in global coal trade since 2020. This is following consecutive monthly export declines throughout the year’s opening period.
Reduced domestic coal production in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, combined with increased factory activity across East Asia in recent months, has sparked renewed regional appetite for thermal coal imports used in power generation.
Industry analysts suggest continued restrictions on Chinese coal mining operations, alongside heightened electricity demand approaching winter months, could sustain elevated import levels throughout the remainder of 2025, undermining predictions of annual trade volume reductions.
However, potential manufacturing sector weakness coupled with milder Asian temperatures heading into 2026 might curtail overall coal consumption and import requirements, potentially preserving prospects for a full-year decline in coal export volumes during 2025.
The August uptick presents a critical juncture for global coal markets, with traders closely monitoring whether recent import strength represents a genuine reversal of the months-long weakening trend or merely a temporary interruption in the broader contraction of worldwide coal trade flows.
Key indicators including Chinese domestic production capacity, regional manufacturing indices, and seasonal temperature patterns will determine whether the coal trade experiences sustained recovery or returns to its declining trajectory established earlier in 2025.
