AN expected rally in copper prices would not materialise in 2025, said the Financial Times citing a report on the metal’s prospects by US bank, Goldman Sachs.
The copper price is forecast to decline by a third owing to a fall in Chinese demand, the newspaper said. It now expects copper to average $10,100 a ton next year, sharply lower than its prediction four months ago that it would hit an all-time high of $15,000/t.
“The copper rally is delayed,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note, citing a drop in Chinese metal consumption that has deepened over the past several months.
“As a result, and given the continued weakness in China’s property sector, we believe that copper inventory depletion — and its accompanying price rally — will probably come much later than we previously thought.”
The downgrade, if it materialises, will cloud the profit outlook for many of the world’s top miners which are also laying out spending plans to increase production in copper.
In July, the world’s largest miner, BHP, and Lundin Mining Corp. said they would buy Toronto-listed copper exploration firm Filo Corporation for C$4.1bn in cash. They intend to build copper production from resources on the Argentina/Chile border.
Used for electric wiring and batteries that are crucial as the world tries to decarbonise, the red metal rallied to an all-time high above $11,000 in May, said the FT.
Other banks have also tempered their copper market outlook, said the FT. Macquarie said last month that strong supply and depressed demand “have pushed the market to a surplus sooner than expected, with the market expected to remain in surplus in 2025 and 2026”.
