[miningmx.com] – THE Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) exported a record 75.4 million tonnes (mt) of coal during 2015 beating its forecast of 74mt for the year, but the collapse in export coal prices has forced management to take a more pessimistic view on coal exports volumes for 2016 and 2017.
Addressing a media briefing at Richards Bay on January 19, RBCT CEO, Nosipho Siwisa-Damasane, said it was possible that the terminal could export 75mt of coal during 2016 but was unlikely to exceed this volume.
“That is going to be a very difficult record to break,’ she commented.
She added the RBCT would not export at the level of 81mt of coal previously forecast for 2017. She also put a cap of 85mt/year on the RBCT’s likely maximum throughput in terms of its existing Phase 5 capacity. The terminal’s Phase 5 nameplate throughput capacity is 91mt/year.
In July last year, Siwisa-Damasane forecast the RBCT would export 74mt of coal during 2015 followed by 77mt in 2016 and then building to 81mt during 2017.
The revised forecasts have potentially major implications for the RBCT’s member coal exporting companies in terms of ‘take or pay’ agreements signed with Transnet Freight Rail (TFR).
The previously forecast export tonnages form the basis for an agreed build-up in railage capacity by TFR in terms of providing new locomotives and rolling stock to haul the additional coal to Richards Bay.
The coal exporters have signed take-or-pay agreements with TFR which will hit them with financial penalties should they not export at the agreed volume levels for which TFR has provided the extra capacity.
Siwisa-Damasane referred queries on the commercial take-or-pay implications of the new forecasts to the individual RBCT members which had signed the agreements.
She added: “It’s not just a question of us not doing 81mt. I think both the RBCT and TFR are affected. I don’t think the RBCT is a bottleneck and I don’t think TFR is a bottleneck at this time.”
Asked if the RBCT had held discussion with TFR on its revised export forecasts Siwisa-Damasane replied: “No, we have not actually managed to get into that discussion yet but this meeting will take place.”
A breakdown of the RBCT’s exports by destination last year revealed major changes in the geographical location of its customers with Asia falling to 59% of total exports from 66% in 2014.
Siwisa-Damasane attributed this to the drop-off in demand from China which was compensated for in part by growing exports to India. “We did not send a single vessel to China in 2015,” she commented.
Growth areas were Africa – which rose to 14% of the total from 7% in 2014 – and ‘others’ which rose to 8% from 2% over the same period.
GM operations, Jabu Mdaki, said the higher demand in Africa had come mainly from North Africa with some additional demand from East Africa.
