IRON ore futures fluctuated around $106 a ton in Singapore after slumping 1.5% on Tuesday reflecting volatility in the mineral due to China stimulus efforts and increased production from Western miners.
Iron ore has shed more than a fifth this year as China’s slowdown, especially its prolonged property slump, prompted mills to cut steel production, said Bloomberg News. However, a series of measures unleashed by Beijing, aimed at stimulating the economy, have aided the steelmaking material, despite concerns about the impact of rising seaborne supplies.
Third quarter production from Brazil’s Vale was the highest since the end of 2018, just before a dam collapse that snarled output. Volumes swelled to 91 million tons, outstripping the the 86.4Mt average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
In Australia, Rio Tinto said quarterly shipments edged up 1% on-year. Jakob Stausholm, the group’s CEO said the company was on track for first production from its giant Simandou project in Guinea next year.
“While the physical demand impact of the stimulus is still unclear, it comes at a time when demand from construction and manufacturing is seasonally improving,” said Morgan Stanley analysts in a recent report.
“Weekly indicators for finished steel demand, production and margins are all moving sequentially higher,” they said.
The bank said an iron ore price above $100/t “better reflect” fundamentals while also noting the mineral was susceptible to “large price cycles”.
“The resolve to stop the property market decline and depth of measures being considered strike us an important pivot for sentiment, at a time when demand is seasonally improving and seaborne supply growth is shifting lower,” the analysts said.
“We see scope for iron ore to gain further into year-end.”