THE turnaround in coal exports during 2024 through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) that was reported in January has continued into 2025 with the terminal meeting forecast higher export levels at the half-way stage.
The RBCT exported 52.1 million tons (Mt) last year which was a 10% increase on the 49Mt exported in 2023 and the first time coal exports had actually increased year-on-year through the terminal in seven years.
In January, RBCT CEO Alan Waller forecast total exports of 55Mt for calendar 2025 and, interviewed on the sidelines of the Coal & Energy Transition Day conference held in Johannesburg today, he said export levels at the half-way stage were in line with that estimate.
Waller also held out the possibility of the 55Mt target being beaten depending on second half export levels but cautioned: “We have had our fingers burnt several times before on optimistic forecasts.”
“For the six months to end-June we exported over 27Mt which puts us in line to hit the 55Mt target but I would note that last year Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) performed much better in the second half of the year than they did during the first six months,” said Waller.
“TFR has now completed its annual maintenance shut down on the line and, if they repeat the kind of performance they achieved in the second half of 2024, then we could be looking at total exports for calendar 2025 of around 57Mt,” he said.
Waller attributed TFR’s better performance to a number of factors including improved operating efficiencies while the “complete transparency” under the new TFR management “had made a huge difference”.
He added a major contributor had been the introduction of numbers of the new Alstom 23E locomotives manufactured in Durban which were coming on line and which he described as “a game changer”.
He said the cabling theft issue remained a problem but it was “manageable”.
