CHINA is forecast to import more off-exchange refined copper this year predominantly from the Democratic Republic of Congo where production of the red metal is booming, said Reuters.
Citing analysts and traders, the newswire said on Wednesday the expected surge illustrates the growing reliance of China, the world’s biggest copper user, on refined metal supply from the Congo, now the world’s second-largest copper producer after years of massive Chinese mining investment there.
Shipments from Congo are typically equivalent grade (EQ) copper because producers have not paid to register it on an exchange such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, meaning it can’t fulfil contracts in that market, said Reuters. That makes EQ copper comparatively cheaper than registered metal even though it meets the same quality specifications, it said.
Analysts and traders said they expect EQ copper’s import volume and market share to grow again this year. EQ copper accounted for 62% of China’s refined copper imports last year, up from just under half in 2022, said Reuters citing data from the Shanghai Metals Market.
The refined copper market remains tight with global demand outpacing supply in nine of 12 months in 2024, according to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Citigroup forecasts a supply deficit of 136,000 tons in 2025.
The lower-priced high-quality EQ copper is a big draw for small- to medium-sized Chinese wire and rod manufacturers, who are getting squeezed by the high prices for refined copper, said Reuters. Prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have increased by 9% since the start of this year and are up 18% from a year ago.
“EQ has been quite popular in China over the past few years. The main reason behind this is that the quality of EQ copper matches that of registered brands while at a lower price,” a copper trader said.
