WORLD coal production is expected to reach an unprecedented 9.2 billion tons in 2025 as fossil fuel demand maintains record levels despite environmental commitments.
This is according to a report by BusinessLive on Monday, citing recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The forecast represents continued growth from last year’s 8.79 billion tons, which marked a 1.5% annual increase even as nations strengthened green policies and invested heavily in renewable infrastructure, the publication said.
Coal dominates more than 70% of South Africa’s energy mix, sustaining nearly 100,000 jobs whilst generating over R250bn in 2022 revenues. However, the sector faces transition challenges, with research indicating most coal workers would struggle to transfer skills to alternative industries.
The country plans to retire 22GW of coal capacity over the next decade under its Integrated Resource Plan, including Camden, Grootvlei and Hendrina plants scheduled for closure between 2027-30, said BusinessLive.
Despite longer-term phase-out plans, South African exporters can expect sustained demand through 2026, the IEA said. This provides welcome relief after challenging market conditions saw coal prices tumble 18% over twelve months.
The downturn affected major players significantly. Exxaro reported 36% lower headline earnings per share, whilst Glencore posted $1.6bn in net losses. Glencore subsequently cut Colombian production by five to 10 million tons (Mt).
South Africa’s coal export capabilities have strengthened recently, with Richards Bay Coal Terminal achieving 52.08Mt in exports last year, marking its highest three-year performance amid improved Transnet rail operations, said BusinessLive.
