GLENCORE trimmed the upper end of its copper production forecast for 2025 despite a strong recovery in the metal’s output in the third quarter.
Full year output of the red metal would be 850,000 to 875,000 tons compared to previous guidance of up to 890,000 tons, the group said on Wednesday.
Third quarter production increased 36% to 583,000 tons following a recovery in grades at its African copper operations (KCC and Mutanda), and its Peru mines Antapaccay and Antamina.
On a year-on-year basis, however, production was 17% lower with the biggest hit at Collahuasi which has to date produced about 59,000 tons less copper than last year owing to water restrictions and less grade.
Glencore, which for the first time provided mine-by-mine guidance at its interim results presentation in August, said it expected to produce 185,000 to 190,000 tons at Collahuasi. The mine would progressively rely less on stockpiled ore over the next 12 to 15 months.
Zinc volumes were tracking 10% higher year-to-date while steelmaking and energy coal volumes were “on track” to meet the middle and upper ends of full year guidance respectively, said Glencore CEO Gary Nagle in today’s update.
Glencore said its marketing division would post pretax earnings at the mid-point of its $2.3bn to $3.5bn guidance range.
Glencore also confirmed the impact of cobalt export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo in September where the group operates the KCC assets.
This was after the DRC, which accounts for over 70% of global cobalt output, froze exports earlier this year in order to curb supply and drive up prices. The export ban was replaced with a quota system overseen by the country’s Strategic Mineral Substances Market Regulation and Control Authority (ARECOMS).
In terms of this ARECOMS has set export limits at 18,125 tons in cobalt for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 77,400 tons for 2026. Unused volumes can be rolled over within 2025 but will expire at year-end. From 2026, quotas will reset monthly and cannot be carried forward, said Reuters in a report citing ARECOMS.
Glencore said today it intended to “export cobalt according to its allocation in 2025-2027.
“Given that the business has sufficient inventory available to fully utilise the allocated quotas, copper production in the DRC will be prioritised over cobalt, where it makes sense. This strategy is expected to continue, while the quotas are in effect,” it added. Production above quota levels will be stored in-country.
Glencore’s quota for this year was 4,000 tons, about 22% of total and 18,800 tons for each of 2026 and 2027 of which 13,300t and 5,500t would be supplied from KCC and Mutanda respectively in both years.
