ZAMBIAN copper producer Jubilee Metals has spent the past two years pitching itself as an emerging copper miner rather than just a processor of third-party material. Its latest interim results suggest that ambition is still credible, but the numbers also show why some investors are sceptical.
For now, Jubilee’s copper production remains dominated by Roan, a processing facility that concentrates low-grade, third-party copper feedstock. Roan delivered 1,246 tons of copper units in the first half, up 173%, and accounted for more than 80% of total copper production of 1,543t in the six months to December 2025. That helped copper revenue rise 70.5% to $14.1m, while copper gross profit increased to $3.1m and gross profit margin improved to 21.8%.
But processing purchased material is structurally a lower-margin business than mining owned ore, and is unlikely to ever command the valuation multiples of a conventional copper producer. That’s why the firm’s 72% stake in the Molefe Copper Mine, a collaboration with Galileo Resources signed last year, is central to Jubilee’s rerating case. If successfully developed, Molefe could shift the group toward higher-margin, resource-backed economics.
The target is ambitious. By the fourth quarter of financial 2026, Jubilee aims for its Sable refinery to produce copper at an annualised rate of 2,000t using additional feedstock from Molefe. If achieved, Molefe and Sable would contribute about 40% of group copper output, materially shifting the earnings mix and moving Jubilee closer to the profile of an integrated miner-refiner.
In the meantime, Roan should see a margin uplift once its new centrifuge-led dewatering upgrade is fully operational. The system is designed to recover previously stockpiled oxide fines and improve slimes recovery, increasing copper output. Finance director Jonathan Morley-Kirk described it as the first phase of Zambia’s capex improvements, saying the centrifuge was “just about to go online in the next couple of weeks” and should provide an early production boost.
The interim numbers themselves did little to support a rerating case. While year-on-year comparisons look impressive, management admitted production missed internal expectations. Morley-Kirk was candid on the investor call: “The results look good in percentage terms. They are good, but they should have been better.” Heavy seasonal rains at Molefe were a major culprit, damaging roads and bridges and hampering ore deliveries to Sable, with disruption continuing after period end.
Acid test
Weather disruption is partly why Jubilee has withheld full-year copper production guidance. The company is also still bedding down Molefe’s revised mine plan, while Middle East turmoil has driven up diesel prices and turned sulphuric acid supply into a genuine operational concern.
Sulphuric acid matters because it is indispensable to Jubilee’s copper leaching process. Without reliable acid supply, copper recovery volumes fall.
As Morley-Kirk put it: “On balance sulphuric acid is a worry. It’s not a big worry at the moment, but it is a worry.”
One supplier has halted production because of plant problems, while a Chinese supplier has also reduced output. Whether these are genuine disruptions or opportunistic cutbacks ahead of higher pricing is impossible to know, but the effect is the same. Jubilee says it is exploring joint procurement with other copper producers and has also engaged government, which has already restricted sulfuric acid exports to the DRC to preserve Zambian supply.
The recent ceasefire announcement in the Middle East offers some hope that disruptions may ease, potentially stabilising sulphur and diesel markets. But the truce is fragile, and it would be rash to assume supply chains normalise quickly, especially as US president Donald Trump’s proposed blockade of the Straits of Hormuz could trigger a restart of hostilities. China’s recent decision to halt sulphuric acid exports from May is a reminder that pressures on key inputs extend beyond the Gulf.
Then there is the question of Molefe’s valuation. Some investors argue Jubilee gave away too much upside by selling 23% to Galileo Resources for $700,000 – implying a headline valuation of only $3.5m for the project.
Management counters that the transaction was struck before exploration drilling and resource delineation and should not be read as fair value for a developed asset. That is a reasonable defence since early-stage mining projects typically trade at low valuations precisely because so much uncertainty still needs to be resolved.
Still, that logic cuts both ways. If Molefe is genuinely worth far more, Jubilee now needs to prove it. The current drilling campaign, aimed at expanding the resource size and defining mine life, is therefore central to the rerating thesis. Until that data is available, the more cautious way to view Jubilee is as a copper exploration and development story underpinned by a low-margin processing business.
Balance sheet
There is at least one clear positive. Jubilee’s South African asset disposal has materially strengthened the balance sheet. The group has already received $25m in cash, with up to a further $65m still due, equivalent to roughly R1.07bn at current exchange rates. That gives Jubilee funding flexibility to build out Zambia without immediate balance-sheet strain.
In the end, the re-rating case is simple. Incremental upgrades at Roan may lift margins, but only Molefe can shift the fundamental investment case. Until it demonstrates the ability to generate mining-grade copper margins at scale, Jubilee is likely to be valued more as a speculative copper developer than the mid-tier producer it aims to become.
