THE Minerals Council expected South African mineral exports to bounce back in May following a 60% decline from March to April.
“Exports were 60% lower in April than in March but we expect some recovery because from March 29 the mines were allowed to return to 50% production,” said Henk Langenhoven, senior economist at the council. Mineral exports fell to R861m in April compared to about R2bn in March, he said.
However, the improvement may not come immediately from gold and platinum exports with spokespeople for South African companies saying building up to 100% of productive capacity amid the COVID-19 pandemic was not a simple matter. The resumption of full capacity might not be possible at all from when it is allowed on June 1.
“We are not sure yet whether we can get to 100% with all of the social distancing required,” said James Wellsted, spokesman for Sibanye-Stillwater. Achieving 100% of total production at surface mines was an easier target.
“We are not going to get to 100% as quickly as we got to 50% [of production,” said Marian van der Walt, spokeswoman for Harmony Gold. “We are looking at two to three weeks [from June 1]. We will look at various solutions.”
Sven Lunsche, spokesman for Gold Fields, said it was “not a case of bringing back 100% of people and getting 100% of production, especially as returning employees from SADC countries such as Mozambique and Lesotho was not yet permitted. “It will be about two to three weeks, about a month before full capacity starting from June. And perhaps even longer than that,” he said.
Langehoven said that whilst mines had sufficient inventory to continue exports whilst not at full capacity, there had been logistical challenges. “We normally export precious metals through passenger flights which have been stopped. So we have had to organise charter flights. The other issue for bulk minerals is Transnet Freight Rail and at the harbours where there has been a lot of disruption,” he said. Bulk exports, such as chrome, have been interrupted by border controls.
In the longer term, however, there would be a recovery. “We are getting some good responses in getting manganese back on track,” said Roger Baxter, CEO of the Minerals Council. “Iron ore exports are picking up and a lot is going through to China where demand is still strong, so those markets haven’t collapsed.
“The numbers should turn round in May, and we should see encouraging supplies,” he said.
