[miningmx.com] — ANALYSTS believed Royal Bafokeng Platinum (RBPlat) would be subject to a renewed takeover bid once it had listed on the JSE, expected to be before the year-end.
“I expect there will be be another shot across the bows of RBPlat,” said Leon Esterhuizen, an analyst for RBC Capital Markets, a UK-based stockbroker. “This is not the last we’ve heard of this bid for the company.
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RBPlat has been reticent to identify the company that bid for 100% of its asset, the Bafokeng Rasimone Platinum Mine (BRPM), two weeks ago, but the market seems to know that the bidder was Impala Platinum.
According to Esterhuizen, Anglo Platinum, which owns 33% of BRPM, probably voted down the offer because it would have handed too much cost competitiveness to a long-standing rival, Impala.
However, Impala may have taken the view that it could lodge a fair offer for the asset, to be held in RBPlat, once listed as the market would establish a valuation and Anglo Platinum would be diluted following the listing.
It’s also possible that Impala could return to RBPlat with an offer to buy the stake of the Royal Bafokeng. Were such a deal to be completed, Anglo Platinum might find itself a minority shareholder in an asset controlled by Impala.
Market sources believe, therefore, that Anglo Platinum has taken a short term view of the proposal and have stood in the way of platinum industry consolidation. Anglo Platinum is 84% owned by Anglo American. Cynthia Carroll, CEO of Anglo American, is also chairperson of Anglo Platinum.
RBPlat owns 67% of BPRM while AngloPlat owns the balance of the company. BRPM’s assets include the adjacent Styldrift deposit where construction of a mine has just begun.
The listing of RBPlat will see it raise capital to optimise operations at the Boschkoppie mine, which produced some 270,000 ounces of platinum group metals in 2009, and bring the R11.8bn Styldrift project into production by 2017.
Esterhuizen said the much-vaunted consolidation of the platinum sector this year had turned to nought which was “disappointing”, but it had to happen in the end.
David Davis, a platinum analyst for Credit Suisse Standard Securities (CSSS), said it would be expensive for Impala to make a bid for RBPlat as a listed entity, but it would have to weigh up the cost of sourcing new platinum ounces through its own multi-billion rand projects.
One of the benefits of consolidation was that it would provide Impala with the flexibility to source new platinum ounces outside of its stated capital expenditure programme.
Impala CEO, David Brown, said in August that the company had fallen behind schedules to complete the 16 and 20 shaft on the Impala Lease, projects carrying total outlay of R14bn.
Brown also said first production from 20 shaft, which is located on Impala’s Rustenburg-based lease area, itself the historic mainstay of group output, was due in the current 2011 financial year, while 16 shaft would deliver production in 2013 compared to the previous 2012 deadline.
Commenting on its plans to list, RBPlat said: “The shareholders have decided not to pursue the offer. RBPlat confirms that it will continue with its plans to list on the main board of the securities exchange during the last quarter of 2010.”
According to a platinum analyst Implats could well swap its Marula mine on the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex for AngloPlat’s stake in BRPM although it would also have to kick in some cash to compensate for the likely difference in values.
The analyst commented: “Implats is the obvious buyer for BRPM because it has major existing infrastructure adjacent the mine.
“Acquiring BRPM would remove the need for Implats to carry out the development of its deep and highly expensive 18 Shaft.
“Implats would also be able to complete the development of Styldrift more cheaply than RB Plat because it would not need to build a new concentrator. Implats has sufficient spare capacity at its existing nearby operations.
