Mike Henry

IF, as is widely speculated, BHP CEO Mike Henry steps down in mid-2026, he is likely to see his ambition of a major acquisition go unfulfilled. After BHP’s second failed attempt to acquire Anglo American in November 2025, a deal valued at an estimated £40bn ($54bn), many investors and analysts questioned the world’s largest miner’s dealmaking approach. BHP has targeted 70% growth in annual copper production from 2Mt last year to 2050 and organic growth is proving expensive: its largest mine, Escondida in Chile, will require at least $10bn in capex as part of BHP’s total four-year programme to spend $10bn–$11bn a year over the next four years.

Henry has made some progress in improving its copper portfolio, buying Filo Corporation in a joint deal with Canada’s Lundin Mining for C$4.1bn in cash last year. But the big takeover deal is proving elusive. BHP is seen as a bellwether of the mining sector’s market health and judging from its most recent results the iron-ore and copper markets are doing fine, enabling the company to report record financial results, reduce debt and pay strong dividends. Henry says growth in China is underpinning the market.

Beyond its operational performance, BHP has other big issues to deal with after a London High Court ruled last year that the company BHP and its JV partner Vale were liable for the 2015 collapse of the Fundao tailings dam in Brazil, which killed 19 people and caused vast environmental damage. The suit brought by hundreds of thousands      of Brazilians, dozens of local governments and around 2,000 businesses, could cost an estimated $48bn.