BARRICK Mining’s business outside North America offers growth from assets including Lumwana and Kibali, but Reko Diq remains the main source of doubt in the group’s growth plans.
This assessment, by National Bank of Canada Capital Markets, comes as Barrick prepares to list a minority stake in its North American gold business, and has named COO Sebastiaan Bock to run the assets in the group outside of the IPO.
National Bank said mine performance had improved across several of Barrick’s assets, including better copper production at its Lumwana mine in Zambia. The $2bn Lumwana Super Pit expansion remained on schedule and budget, with first copper due by the end of the first quarter of 2028.
Reko Diq in Pakistan has a less certain outlook. Barrick slowed work on the copper-gold project in April because of security concerns and is reviewing security, capital needs, funding, scope and timing.
It has yet to give an updated capital estimate or development timetable. National Bank called Reko Diq the “principal area of uncertainty” in Barrick’s growth portfolio.
Barrick has warned that the project could cost much more and take longer than previously planned. It cut planned 2026 spending to $450m-$500m from $600m-$700m.
National Bank also lists permits and operating licences, swings in local currencies and changes in gold and copper prices among Barrick’s risks. Higher oil prices also raise operating and capital costs.
Bock to lead RoW
Barrick this week named Bock CEO of Rest of World where he will lead the group’s gold and copper mines and projects outside North America.
The portfolio spans Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia Pacific, produces more than two million gold-equivalent ounces a year and is expected to grow production by more than 20% over the next three years.
Bock joined Barrick in 2019 and became COO for Africa and the Middle East in 2022. He has led the Lumwana expansion and Barrick’s handling of its dispute in Mali, and helped oversee record output at Kibali and reserve growth at Loulo-Gounkoto and Bulyanhulu, it said in a statement.
During Monday’s webinar on Barrick’s interim results and planned IPO, CEO Mark Hill said the board had recently held a full session on growth in Rest of World. He pointed to Lumwana and Kibali and said the plan was to grow the business.
Bock said Barrick was looking at ways to get more from the portfolio, including through partnerships and growth around existing mines. Using infrastructure already in place made those additional ounces among the cheapest Barrick could add, he said.
Barrick also sees partnerships as part of its Rest of World plans. Chair John Thornton said there was scope to work with Chinese companies through joint mine ownership and investment, as well as gaining access to technology, equipment, supply chains and shared infrastructure.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Matthew Murphy welcomed Bock’s appointment, citing his experience in Africa and the Middle East and his work on Lumwana, Mali and Barrick’s African gold mines.
BMO said Barrick’s announcement gave an early outline of Rest of World after the North American IPO – more than two million gold-equivalent ounces of annual production, growth of more than 20% over three years and scope to work with Chinese partners.
It expects more detail on the strategy and growth projects after the IPO.
Questions over Fourmile price
Meanwhile, Monday’s agreement with Newmont removed one of the main hurdles to Barrick’s North American IPO.
Newmont agreed to the listing as part of a deal under which Barrick will put Fourmile into Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) earlier than planned. Newmont will contribute its Mike and Fiberline projects and pay Barrick $1.95bn. The deal also settles outstanding disputes between the partners.
JP Morgan said the deal cleared the way for the IPO but described the $1.95bn payment as “underwhelming”.
Barrick shares fell 6.4% on the day of the results. JP Morgan linked the fall partly to a lack of detail on Fourmile’s contribution to the deal and concern that Barrick may have given up value.
Hill, however, valued the whole package at closer to $4bn. JP Morgan said this implied a value of more than $10bn for Fourmile, broadly in line with its own valuation of the project.
The bank said the market reaction had been too harsh on Fourmile.
It said further drilling and adding Fourmile to NGM could increase its value, while the deal should also help Barrick develop the project faster.
Barrick is targeting a roughly 10% listing of the North American business, down from an earlier 15%, with proceeds set to be returned to shareholders.
JP Morgan said it remained unclear whether Barrick would need a shareholder vote because of opposition to the IPO.
