SOUTH Africa’s surprisingly strong tax intake has strengthened the case for additional sovereign credit rating upgrades in the coming year, said Bloomberg News citing the views of Goldman Sachs, a bank.
Figures published by National Treasury this week showed corporate tax receipts rising roughly 5.5% on a semi-annualised basis to R385bn ($23.3bn) in June, driven largely by profits from mining exports. That outstripped both the R345bn collected in fiscal 2025-26 and the R364bn the February budget had pencilled in for 2026-27, said the newswire.
Andrew Matheny, an economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that the persistent strength of these fiscal figures backs the bank’s view that Moody’s and S&P will both raise their ratings on the country within the next 12 months.
Moody’s currently rates South Africa Ba2, having lifted its outlook to positive in May, pointing to a stronger fiscal position, government commitment to stabilising finances, and headway on economic reform. S&P Global Ratings delivered the nation’s first upgrade in 20 years back in November, citing similar drivers.
Should another increase follow, South Africa’s rating would climb to BB+ from BB, a shift Matheny said would benefit local fixed-income assets that he believed are not yet pricing in an upgrade.
Africa’s largest economy posted a primary budget surplus of 1.1% of GDP for the year to March, beating Treasury’s 0.9% projection.
