African export curbs hurt China’s best laid plans

Cut cobalt cathodes, owned by Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., sit stacked in this arranged photograph in Rotterdam, Netherlands, on Monday, Jan. 22, 2018. Cobalt 27 holds almost 3,000 metric tons of cobalt, the largest private stockpile on the planet. Photographer: Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

AFRICAN export restrictions on critical battery metals are dealing a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines on the continent, driving up prices and disrupting supply chains back home.

Chinese miners have invested heavily in Africa for more than a decade to secure feedstocks for domestic refineries and factories, betting on surging demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage industries. But a wave of resource nationalism is complicating those bets, said Bloomberg News in an article on Tuesday.

Congo began cobalt export curbs in February 2025 to reduce a supply glut and capture more value locally, while Zimbabwe last month banned lithium concentrate shipments to encourage in-country processing. Benchmark cobalt prices have surged more than 160% since the restrictions were imposed, with cobalt hydroxide — the main Congolese export product — more than quadrupling, according to Fastmarkets.

CMOC Group, the world’s leading cobalt producer, has been especially hard hit, able to export only around a quarter of its 2024 output under current quotas. In Zimbabwe, Chinese firms including Sinomine Resource Group and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt face major additional investment to build refining capacity, though planned sulphate processing facilities will handle only about a third of expected concentrate production, said Martin Jackson of consultancy CRU Group.

Chinese firms have announced around $2.8bn in Zimbabwean lithium investments since 2020, while CMOC alone has committed roughly $9bn to Congolese copper-cobalt operations.

“The mining landscape in Africa is changing drastically,” said Christopher Edyegu of Africa Risk Consulting, adding that resource nationalism was more likely to intensify than fade.