THE World Bank has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 and down from the 4.4% it projected in October, citing the economic fallout from the Iran war as a drag on the region’s recovery.
The revision, reported by Bloomberg News on Wednesday, reflects rising fuel and fertiliser costs, mounting pressure on investment flows and heavy debt burdens across the continent. A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has since been agreed, but the US Energy Information Administration cautioned on Tuesday that fuel prices could continue rising for months even after the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of global oil shipments pass — is fully reopened.
According to Bloomberg’s reports, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen said the external environment had deteriorated sharply since late last year. Debt-servicing costs had doubled from 9% of government revenues in 2017 to around 18% in 2025, with about half of African countries either at high risk of debt distress or already in it, he said.
“There is very little scope actually for these countries to deal with this crisis because they just don’t have a lot of fiscal space,” he said.
Gulf investment in Africa — particularly in East African mining, renewables, real estate and technology — faces uncertainty, while remittance flows could weaken if prolonged conflict reduces labour demand in the Middle East, where large numbers of African migrants are employed.
The strain is most acute among oil-importing economies with limited policy room, including Burundi, Malawi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique. Ethiopia alone has around 750,000 workers in Saudi Arabia, said Bloomberg.
